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India has been the fastest growing major economy in the world for the last ten years, with the latest data from the International Monetary Fund or IMF showing a staggering 105 per cent growth in the last decade.

According to the IMF, India’s GDP currently stands at $4.3 trillion. It was $2.1 trillion in 2015, when Narendra Modi’s first term as prime minister was less than a year in office. Since then, India has more than doubled its economy in terms of Gross Domestic Product or GDP.

India is on the cusp of overtaking Japan as the fourth-largest economy in the world. Japan’s GDP currently stand at $4.4 trillion and India is poised to go past that mark by the third quarter of 2025. Should the average rate of growth continue the way it is, India will surpass Germany – the 3rd-largest economy globally – by the 2nd quarter of in 2027. Germany’s GDP currently stands at $4.9 trillion.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has called India’s 10-year economic performance “outstanding”, hailing the country for doubling its GDP in a decade. Mr Goyal highlighted that India, which has topped the world with a growth rate of 105 per cent in 10 years, has outperformed other major economies like China (76 per cent), USA (66 per cent), Germany (44 per cent), France (38 per cent) and UK (28 per cent).

India has outpaced all the nations in the G7, the G20, and the BRICS by more than doubling its size of economy.

“The global shift is real! PM Narendra Modi-ji has led India to double its GDP in the last decade, positioning it to become the third-largest economy globally soon,” Mr Goyal said.

‘THE BIG TWO’

While India topped the list in terms of pace of growth, the top two spots in terms of size of economy remained the United States ($30.3 trillion) and China ($19.5 trillion). Germany is in third place at $4.9 trillion, Japan in fourth at $4.4 trillion, and India at fifth at $4.3 trillion.

Breaking into the top two places will take India little over two decades at its current rate of growth. Though, it is interesting to note that as of March, 2025, US’s national debt stands at $36.22 trillion, while China’s national debt as of September, 2024 stands at $2.52 trillion. In comparison, India’s overall debt as of September, 2024 stands at $712 billion.

INDIA’S GROWTH TRAJECTORY

India took 60 years for its GDP to reach the first trillion-dollar mark (in 2007). From $1 trillion to $2 trillion took 7 years (in 2014), Despite COVID-19, India reached the $3 trillion mark in 2021. The journey from $3 trillion to $4 trillion took just 4 years.

At this pace, should the progression continue the way it is, India is poised to add a trillion dollars to its GDP every 1.5 years, and could likely become a $10 trillion economy by end of 2032.

In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI’s interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said.

Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.

Equity markets would remain closed on Thursday for “Shri Mahavir Jayanti”.

“This week is set to be volatile for global and Indian markets, as US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs worldwide, igniting fears of an all-out trade war and a global economic recession. The US inflation numbers will be released along with the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes,” Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, said.

Equity benchmarks slumped on Friday due to an across-the-board sell-off, tracking weak global markets amid growing global trade war fears.

Domestically, the RBI will decide on interest rates. India’s industrial and manufacturing production data is also set to be released this week, he said.

US equity markets tanked nearly 6 per cent on Friday, closing the worst week for the stocks since 2020.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March is scheduled for release on Thursday, and the UK GDP data on Friday, Singhania added.

Last week, the BSE Sensex tanked 2,050.23 points, or 2.64 per cent, while the NSE Nifty declined 614.8 points, or 2.61 per 

This week, Indian markets are expected to be volatile on the back of concerns over the impact of the US reciprocal tariffs and potential announcements of further sector specific tariffs during the week.

“Also, focus will be on RBI’s monetary policy outcome on 9th April, where the market is expecting another 25 bps rate cut, and Q4 FY25 earnings season kicking off with TCS results on 10th April,” Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said.

Investors will also watch out for March CPI data from the US and India to be released this week, he said.

Markets would keenly monitor the trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trend, and crude oil prices this week, experts said.

Last week, benchmark indices declined following a global sell-off sparked by Trump’s tariff announcements and renewed concerns over economic slowdown, Mr Khemka added.

“Investors fear Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy will fuel recession and drive inflation in the US going ahead and will also engulf other key economies,” Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd, said.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd, said, “The trend of FPIs turning buyers in March changed in early April when FPIs turned sellers again. A major trend reversal in global stock markets happened after President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd.”

The reciprocal tariffs came much steeper-than-expected, he noted.

“The 10 per cent baseline tariff on all imports, the 25 per cent tariff on all automobile imports and steep reciprocal tariffs on most countries are expected to raise inflation in the US and there are concerns that the US economy might even slip into stagflation. This triggered massive selling in the US markets where S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost above 10 per cent in two days,” Mr Vijayakumar said.

There is an urgent need to build artificial intelligence (AI) solutions suited for India’s language diversity, to bring a billion Indians into the AI-driven digital economy, Infosys co-founder and Aadhaar architect, Nandan Nilekani, has said.

Open-source AI models, such as AI4Bharat, are working to create Indian language datasets that can power AI-driven services in agriculture, education, and healthcare, he said during an event by Arkam Ventures.

The government is planning an initiative called the ‘Open Agri Network’, which will use AI to deliver real-time agricultural insights to farmers.

According to him, another major shift will come from affordable smartphone access.

“This is a big unlock where we use technology, DPI, and AI to reach a billion Indians,” Mr Nilekani told the gathering.

Mr Nilekani also spoke about the return of Indian startups to domestic markets. “It’s the perfect setup for more IPOs and rapid expansion,” he noted.

On the growing Indian startup ecosystem, he said that successful founders are reinvesting in the next generation of entrepreneurs.

Mr Nilekani said that while the Indian economy grows at 8 per cent, the number of startups would grow by a 20 per cent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) and reach the 1-million mark in the next decade.

Additionally, he highlighted the need to enable 10 million MSMEs with better access to technology, markets, and credit.

India’s rapid technological leap over the past decade was enabled by digital public infrastructure (DPI) such as Aadhaar and UPI.

With over 500 million smartphone users and 530 million WhatsApp users, India has built an unprecedented digital base, he noted.

“There’s a need for India to go all-in on artificial intelligence (AI) adoption, ensuring its benefits reach a billion people. For this, key focus areas are Indian language accessibility, MSMEs, agriculture, health, and education.

India’s rapidly growing creator landscape is poised to drive over USD 1 trillion annually by 2030, which currently influences an estimated USD 350 billion in consumer expenditure each year, according to a new report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) titled “From Content to Commerce: Mapping India’s Creator Economy.”

The report by BCG is set to be officially unveiled at the ongoing WAVES 2025 mega-event in Mumbai on May 3rd,2025.

India boasts a substantial base of 2 to 2.5 million active digital creators, defined as individuals with over 1,000 followers. Despite this impressive scale, the report points out that only a small fraction, between 8 per cent and 10 per cent, of these creators are currently monetising their content effectively, the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting said.

The direct revenues generated by the creator ecosystem are estimated at USD 20-25 billion and are anticipated to surge to USD 100-125 billion by the end of the decade.

The upcoming BCG report also reveals several important trends and key insights, such as the fact that creators are already shaping over 30 per cent of consumer decisions, translating to USD 350-400 billion in current spending.

The report noted that the creator ecosystem is no longer limited to Gen Z and major metropolitan areas, increasingly engaging diverse age groups and consumers in smaller cities and towns.

Short-form video remains the most popular content format, with comedy, films, daily soaps, and fashion emerging as the most consumed genres. At the same time, India’s creator economy sees diversifying revenue, prompting a 1.5 to 3 times increase in the coming years, signalling a fundamental shift in marketing and commerce strategies driven by the digital creator ecosystem.

WAVES 2025 is India’s first-of-its-kind international summit dedicated to the audio-visual and entertainment sectors. It brings together over 10,000 delegates, 1,000 creators, 300 companies, and 350 startups, creating a powerful cross-sectoral network.

From film and OTT to AVGC-XR, comics, AI, and broadcasting, the event encompasses the entire spectrum of media and emerging technologies. The four-day event, which began on May 1, will run from May 1 to May 4.

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